Can Economists Beat Sport Experts? Analysis of Medal Predictions for Sochi 2014

Abstract

ObjectiveThe predictive power of expert knowledge and econometric modeling is analyzed using predictions of results at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games.MethodForecasts by five sport experts and three sport‐agnostic economists are compared at the country level by medal color and by sport. Success ratios and correlation coefficients are used to make these comparisons.ResultsExperts beat economists, although both indicators are always above 75 percent at the country level and 60 percent at the medal‐color and sport levels. Indicators are below 40 percent when predicting individual winners and 20 percent when predicting athlete and medal color.ConclusionsExpert predictions can help bettors. Econometric models can help design long‐term sport policies.