Can continuous simulation be used as an alternative for flood regionalisation? A large sample example from Chile

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis lies at the core of hydrology and water engineering as one of the most required estimates for water planning and design of hydraulic structures. For ungauged basins, where no information is available, various flood regionalisation techniques have varying degrees of complexity and resulting performance, depending on the study's goal, the region analysed, and the information available. This study evaluates the use of hydrological models for flood regionalisation in Chile, using 1) A large sample dataset of 101 catchments; 2) the continuous simulation approach with the GR4J model; 3) the leave-one-out strategy for performance testing; and, 4) two regionalisation methods: Nearest Neighbour (NN) and Physical Similarity (PS), together with several alternative objective functions for calibration purposes and regionalisation strategy (in all cases adopting a single criterion, single variable and determinist approach for the parameter’s selection). Our results showed that performance (both in calibration–validation and regionalisation) is highly variable (in terms of reproducing the runoff hydrograph and flood statistics), depending on the catchment’s aridity (e.g., around 66–82% of catchments with NSE above 0 in humid regions but it severely drops to 12–44% of catchments with NSE above 0 when evaluating arid catchments). We also found that flood-specific calibration strategies produce better results for floods but poorer performance in runoff hydrograph reproduction. Finally, we highlight that our regionalisation results were in close agreement with those from one of the currently recommended methods by Chilean engineering for flood regionalisation. This is particularly promising, considering that the continuous simulation approach gives access to the complete time series and not only flood statistics. We end this manuscript by discussing several sources of uncertainty, hoping that these can be accounted for in future studies.