Can China Peak Its Non-CO2 GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?

Abstract

Non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for about 1/4 of global GHG emissions, and the trend of these emissions, as well as their mitigation potential and abatement cost, are of interest to both scientific researchers and decision makers. We present an integrated model, China Multigas Optimal Reduction Evaluation model (China-MORE), of the nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and fluorinated gases (F-gases) emissions of China, with which we analyze the non-CO2 emission reduction implications of China's Paris pledges. We find that China's non-CO2 emissions can peak before 2030 under its Paris pledges, where the cobenefit of coal control policy is the largest contributor to this emissions trajectory due to reduction of CH4 from coal mines. Based on the mitigation cost curve, we show that while the non-CO2 emission reductions are cost-effective at a lower reduction rate, they can only be reduced up to 60-70% due to physical constraints of the reduction technologies, leaving 1.4 Gt CO2-eq of residual emissions in 2050. The growth of non-CO2 emissions in China is largely driven by household consumption of cooling technologies, vehicles, and food. Our findings imply that deep reductions can only be achieved through the deployment of mitigation technologies at a reasonable cost, along with policies to induce behavioral change.