Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?

Abstract

Besides being the world's most populous country, China is also the top emitter of CO2 with power generation being the main culprit. Stretching between 2017 and 2050 a projection of the future Chinese electricity production is presented. Power generation forecasts derive from the Business As Usual (BAU), the Goals (Goals), the Renewables (RESc) and the Coal Free (CFr) scenarios. The RESc, consisting of renewables, hydro and batteries, is unable to meet electricity demand unless supplemented by fossil fuels. Bound by various constraints, natural gas is unlikely to act as a transition fuel to a low-carbon economy. At 0.207 $/kWh, the RESc yields the most expensive electricity which is twice as costly as the CFr and the Goals and 3 times more expensive than the BAU. Concerning CO2 emissions, the BAU will emit 7.26–12.34 Gigatonnes (Gt) compared to 2.57–4.76 Gt for the Goals, 0.79–2.03 Gt for the RESc and 0.68–1.47 Gt for the CFr by 2050. Both the CFr and Goals are the only ones that fulfil China's COP21 targets. Concluding, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) are estimated to lower CO2 emissions by 1.06 Gt indicating that China's electricity sector can realize net-zero emissions only by phasing-out coal.