Abstract
BackgroundThe United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios.MethodsWe used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization’s targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030.ResultsIf current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals.ConclusionsReaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction.
Highlights
The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third
In the present study we included six risk factors which were included in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) study whose definitions harmonize with those of World Health Organization (WHO), and we examined to what extent the mortality from NCDs and their main subcategories could decrease in 2030 if any or all risk factors meet the WHO targets
The premature deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) would increase from 1.24 million in 2013 to 1.52 million in 2030, accounting for the largest portion (277,000 deaths) of the total increase in NCD premature deaths. This would be followed by cancer (174,000) and diabetes (16,000), while premature deaths from chronic respiratory diseases would decrease by 45,000
Summary
The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios. Li et al BMC Medicine (2017) 15:132 risk factors, including excess weight/obesity, hypertension, and hyperglycemia, has been increasing rapidly in the last decade [5,6,7]. If these risk factors are not well controlled, the disease burden of NCDs will continue to rise. In order to inform setting priorities when allocating limited resources in Health China 2030, this study has projected premature mortality from NCDs under different scenarios of risk factor reduction and assessed whether and how the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs can be achieved
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