Abstract
The agricultural biogas sector is now facing the opportunity to become a significant actor in the new energy deal as a low-carbon source of electricity. Given the current prospects for rapid growth in the industry, the authors developed an economic model of a medium-sized agricultural biogas plant to assess the rate of return on such an investment. The analysis comprises energy prices, substrates, and other costs reported by the plants already in operation, as well as the electricity sales support system, the actual biogas and electricity yield from the substrates, and the digestate utilisation. It shows that a biogas plant capable of delivering ca. 2000 MWe generates a profit in a much shorter timeframe than 20 years, even under quite uncertain economic conditions. In the model scenario, the breakeven point is reached at slightly below 5000 MWh of power output or at ca. 5800 MWh including financing costs, with a planned annual output of approx. 8000 MWh. The profitability of the model biogas plant was also demonstrated by calculations made for other scenarios which differ in substrate composition and financing structure. The parameters of the econometric model are based on the data collected from a group of 41 units that use only organic plant matter for biogas production.
Highlights
Accelerating climate change and global warming are increasing the pressure for the energy transition to renewable energy sources [1]
There are currently 100 agricultural biogas plants in Poland, but the total exceeds 300 if plants operating at landfills and sewage treatment facilities are included
It is no wonder that Poland produces much less biomethane per person than most developed countries. These data clearly show that biogas plants can deliver much more electricity and heat, especially given Poland’s abundant land resources and improving waste-utilisation possibilities
Summary
Accelerating climate change and global warming are increasing the pressure for the energy transition to renewable energy sources [1]. Sector-specific studies include the publication on the anticipated costs of investment in agricultural biogas plants with an installed electrical capacity of 1 Mwe in the Polish economic conditions [18]. The available biogas production models differ widely in the optimal substrate composition, which results in up to a 60% variability of findings [26] They fail to take into account the economic side of biogas plant operation by disregarding a range of impacts on profitability, such as labour and service costs, substrate collection, and digestate disposal. As was confirmed by calculations made for the Warmia-Mazury Province (northern Poland), biogas plants are an important component of the energy self-sufficiency of the studied area due to the easy availability of biomass as well as the achievable high efficiency of generators and heat recovery (ca. 40% and 50%, respectively) [13]
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