Can BDS Improve Tsunami Early Warning in South China Sea?

Abstract

Currently, China is strengthening infrastructure construction in South China Sea (SCS) area, it is believed that in the near future, SCS territory will play an increasingly important role in political and economic exploitation as well as international cooperation issues. However, political and economical development plans must also consider possible impact of various natural hazards as well as strategies for damage minimization. In particular, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a zone of potential tsunami hazard in the SCS region. Despite the fact, that no earthquake higher than Mw7.6 has occurred in this region during last years, events of higher magnitudes cannot be excluded which could expose SCS to the tsunami risk. Recently, development of a region-wide Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) was proposed. Traditional TEWS incorporates seismic network for detection of earthquakes and estimating their tsunamigenic potential combined with ocean-based observations for monitoring of wave propagation. After the striking Great Sumatra 2004 earthquake and tsunami, new technologies were introduced into the tsunami early warning. In particular, continuous GPS-arrays able to measure earthquake source parameters in almost real-time. Around the end of 2012, China has completed the constellation of the regional Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), and this system is running operationally since that time. Nowadays, China government is reinforcing the application of BDS in scientific and engineering fields. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the precise positioning performance of BDS is equal in match against GPS in the Asian-Pacific region, which promisingly suggests BDS can be implemented to facilitate tsunami early warning in the South China Sea. In present study, we use numerical simulation technique to assess the potential of the BDS for the tsunami early warning in SCS. We suggest deployment of a real-time BDS coastal network at the Luzon Island. Such a network, if established, will effectively contribute to fast source inversion at the Manila trench and, hence, to more rapid and reliable tsunami early warning in the whole SCS region.