Can Africa Reduce Poverty by Half by 2015?

Abstract

This article uses simulations to explore the possibility of halving the number of people in Africa living in extreme poverty by 2015. It shows that initial levels of inequality and per capita consumption determine the cumulative growth and reductions in inequality required to achieve this target, and finds that on average Africa needs only a relatively modest annual rate of growth in per capita household consumption, if inequality remains unchanged. The trade‐off between the two varies greatly among countries, and their policy choices are thus quite different: in some cases small changes in income distribution can have a large effect on poverty, while in others a strong focus on growth is the only viable option.