Can Africa achieve herd immunity?

Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno,Hao Li,Ekpereonne Babatunde Esu,Xu Lin,Isaac Olushola Ogunkola,Yusuff Adebayo Adebisi

doi:10.1186/s41256-021-00231-1

Abstract

The World Health Organization described herd immunity, also known as population immunity, as the indirect fortification from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous exposure to infection. The emergence of COVID-19 vaccine is a step towards the achievement of herd immunity. Over one billion people across the globe have been vaccinated and Africa recorded only 2%. The objective of this article was to develop a forecast of the number of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity in the 13 WHO-identified priority African countries for COVID-19. Herd immunity is achieved when one infected person in a population causes less than one secondary case on average, corresponding to the effective basic reproduction number (R0). Vaccine delivery and distribution infrastructure including the cold chain remains weak. Vaccine hesitancy is also one of the limiting factors that may hinder herd immunity in Africa. In order to achieve herd immunity globally, African countries should not be excluded in fair and equal distribution of vaccines. Relevant stakeholders should foster commitment as well as community sensitization on COVID-19 vaccines and integration of COVID-19 vaccines in existing healthcare services.

Highlights

As of 2021 July, the notorious virus COVID-19 has spread globally at a daunting speed, causing millions of cases and more than three million deaths in just a year and few months [1]
The scientific world experienced a breakthrough when diverse COVID-19 vaccines were developed within a year—an unnatural speed for vaccine development
The objective of this article was to develop a forecast of the number of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity in the 13 World Health Organization (WHO)-identified priority African countries for COVID-19

Summary

Introduction

As of 2021 July, the notorious virus COVID-19 has spread globally at a daunting speed, causing millions of cases and more than three million deaths in just a year and few months [1]. The world was thrown into abject confusion as the virus could not be contained in almost all countries of the world, including those with worldclass health facilities [2]. The pandemic did not just affect the health sectors of countries alone and the social and economic aspects. The pandemic was highly felt across different socio-economic strata, those belonging to vulnerable groups such as the poor, like street vendors and other marginalized groups [2, 3]. The scientific world experienced a breakthrough when diverse COVID-19 vaccines were developed within a year—an unnatural speed for vaccine development.

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Conclusion