Can a single, early quantitative human chorionic gonadotropin measurement in an in vitro fertilization-gamete intrafallopian transfer program predict pregnancy outcome?

Abstract

To assess the predictive value of a single serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurement obtained on day 14, 15, or 16 after transfer in in vitro fertilization or gamete intrafallopian transfer pregnancies. Retrospective. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) programs. One hundred thirty-four consecutive pregnancies from two ART programs were reviewed. The incidence of livebirth was only 6% when day 14 to 16 hCG values were less than 100 mIU/mL, but increased to 82% with levels greater than 100 mIU/mL (P less than 0.001). The incidence of livebirth and multiple birth correlated with rising hCG levels. Only 1% (1/71) of pregnancies with serum hCG values greater than 100 mIU/mL was ectopic, and this case was a bilateral (double) ectopic. A single serum hCG measurement obtained 14 to 16 days after embryo or gamete transfer not only is diagnostic but also has good predictive value for pregnancy outcome.