Abstract
To meet China's ambitious carbon neutrality target by 2060, the development of a new power system focusing on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is crucial. This study integrates Planetary Boundaries (PBs) with a life cycle assessment to explore the sustainability impacts of this transformative energy approach both nationally and regionally. Utilizing a GIS-MCDA (Geographic Information System-Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis) model, the analysis covers the period from 2025 to 2060, examining the seven major grid regions in China. Our findings reveal that under current energy production systems, no region can meet its basic energy needs without exceeding petabytes if existing energy production systems are maintained, thereby risking severe PBs transgressions. Simulations indicate that the adoption of the new power system could significantly mitigate these risks. Quantitative results show that, by 2050, the potential reduction in PB pressures could reach up to 30 % at the national level and vary significantly across regions, depending on their specific energy transition strategies. These insights provide a vital scientific basis for future policy-making and optimization of power systems to safeguard environmental thresholds and promote sustainable development in China.
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