Campaign Finances and Provincial Elections in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study analyses the relationship between provincial election outcomes and campaign spending. This study is novel as it utilizes only those expenses that should have a causal link with election success. OLS regression controlled for candidate quality, incumbency, and economic conditions reveals a positive (negative) relationship between campaign (challenger) spending and election succession, while logistic regression results in a 93% correct prediction rate. Two-staged least-square regression corroborates the findings. The results suggest that although campaign spending is useful, incumbency status and experience are more important. Additionally, campaign spending is less important during close elections and has a diminishing marginal return.