Campaign Effects in Theory and Practice

Abstract

Although scholars debate the influence of election campaigns on electoral decision making, they agree that campaigns do have effects. Empirically identifying the effects of the campaign is not straightforward, however. We simply do not have regular readings of voter preferences over the election cycle, and the readings we do have are imperfect. Clearly then, an important question is, Can we actually detect the effects of election campaigns? In this article, the authors consider the practice of identifying campaign effects, focusing particularly on survey error and its consequences for empirical analysis. Using selected poll data from the 2000 presidential election cycle, they illustrate how the various forms of survey error complicate the study of campaign effects. The authors also offer certain solutions, although these only take us part of the way. Indeed, given the available data, it appears that all that can be offered are fairly general conclusions about the effects of election campaigns.