Climate change and impact on distribution of tree species in the cloud forest of Oaxaca

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change represents a problem that generates long-term impacts and is considered a threat to the conservation of many species. Objective: To evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution areas of 10 trees species characteristic of cloud forests in the state of Oaxaca. Materials and methods: The impact was evaluated for two-time horizons (2050 and 2080) and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) under the Had GEM2-ES general atmospheric circulation model. Current and future distribution was modeled with MaxEnt. The distribution of Carpinus tropicalis, Juglans pyriformis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Litsea glaucescens, Magnolia dealbata, Magnolia schiedeana, Ostrya virginiana, Symplocos coccinea, Zinowiewia concinna and Taxus globosa were obtained from the herbarium specimen review. Results and discussion: In RCP 4.5, J. pyriformis, L. styraciflua, L. glaucescens and S. coccinea increased (2.8 % to 20.5 %) their area of distribution. In this scenario, the rest of the species reduced their area by up to 30 % compared to the current distribution. In RCP 8.5-2050, J. pyriformis and O. virginiana had a gain of more than 5 %. All species showed a reduction greater than 10 % under the RCP 8.5- 2080 scenario. The models showed area under the curve greater than 0.8 and partial ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) greater than 1.7. Conclusions: Understanding the response of 10 species to climate change will serve as a basis for proposing conservation and monitoring plans, since nine of them are in some category of risk.