Call-Put Volatility Spreads and Option Returns in the KOSPI 200 Index Options Market

Abstract

This study analyzes whether KOSPI200 option returns can be predicted by call-put implied volatility spreads. Doran et al. (2013) show that call-put implied volatility spreads predict the option returns of a specific moneyness as well as underlying asset returns in the US options market. Our study examines whether the same results are shown in the KOSPI200 options market, which has different characteristics in investor compositions and trading behaviors. According to the results, the call-put implied volatility spreads cannot predict the future returns of the underlying index significantly in the KOSPI200 options market. Only, the call-put spreads can predict the future option returns. More specifically, the increase in implied volatility spreads is able to predict the decrease in call option returns and the increase in put option returns in the KOSPI200 options market. This supports the overreaction hypothesis in all ranges of option moneyness, which is in contrast to the result of Doran et al. (2003).