Abstract
California’s 1998 Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) law imposed complex restrictions, enhanced supervision, and delayed licensure on new drivers under age 18. While initial researchers credited GDL with reducing fatalities among 16-year-olds, later research found larger fatality increases among the 18- and 19 age group of GDL “graduates.” This study uses Center for Health Statistics and Fatality Analysis Reporting System traffic data from 1996-2008 to conduct time-series analyses of the longer-term effects of California’s GDL law on motor vehicle fatalities and fatal crashes among the 16-25 age group. The control series consisted of Californians in the 27-39 age group during the same time period who reached age 16 before GDL took effect. The analysis found that from 1996-2008, the 16-25 age group subjected to GDL suffered significant net increases of 5% in drivers’ fatal crash involvements and 7% in traffic fatalities compared to the control group not exposed to GDL. Declines in fatalities and fatal crashes among the 16-17 year old age group were more than offset by larger increases in fatalities and fatal crashes among ages 18-25. For the 16-25 age group as a whole, California’s GDL was associated with approximately 60 more fatal crashes and fatalities per year. These results replicate and extend the negative findings regarding GDL. They suggest that lawmakers now should consider repealing or substantially modifying California’s GDL in the direction of a more flexible, professional licensing system.
Highlights
California’s Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) law was enacted in 1997 at a time when traffic crashes and deaths across the state, especially among teenagers, had fallen sharply and steadily to historic lows
The present study extends the analysis of the longerterm effects of GDL laws by including the 18 through 25 year old age group, from 1996 through 2008
California’s 1998 Graduated Driver Licensing Law, evaluated using traffic mortality and driver crash involvement statistics for the 1996-2008 period, is associated with reduced motor vehicle fatalities and crash involvements among the 1617 age group but increased fatality risks among young-adult GDL “graduates.” Young adults in 20 and older age groups who were exposed to GDL as teenagers display traffic fatality levels similar to younger motorists who were not exposed to GDL, indicating that GDL may subject young drivers to unnecessary delays and restrictions and inadequate driver training, effectively delaying them by around two years in obtaining necessary driving experience
Summary
California’s Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) law was enacted in 1997 at a time when traffic crashes and deaths across the state, especially among teenagers, had fallen sharply and steadily to historic lows. California’s new GDL law, effective July 1, 1998, remains among the most restrictive of all other states (California Department of Motor Vehicles 2013; Masten & Hagge, 2003). It requires new drivers ages 16 or 17 to undergo a lengthy, two-stage licensing process involving driver training by a licensed driver age 25 or older, driver education, and multiple driver tests, and to observe bans on driving late at night and on transporting passengers under age 20 during the probationary period.
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