Calibrations to estimate absolute numbers of New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) pups from direct counts

Abstract

Annual direct counts of seal pups can indicate long‐term trends in population size, but mark‐recapture estimates are needed to deduce absolute numbers. A calibration between results from these two methods would facilitate the use of direct counts to estimate absolute numbers, an outcome that is relatively quick, cheap and minimises disturbance of animals. Mark‐recapture estimates for the numbers of New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) pups in 2003 at 10 colonies at Otago, southeastern New Zealand, were compared with independent single counts at the same colonies. A single ratio to estimate absolute numbers (y) from direct counts x was not statistically significant. Instead, two ratios were deduced, based on differences in habitat among colonies: y = 1.51x for colonies with hiding places for pups and y = 0.96x for colonies without hiding places. Application of these calibrations and their 95% prediction intervals produce estimates and ranges for the absolute numbers of pups from single annual counts.