Calibration of Highway Safety Manual Safety Performance Function

Abstract

This paper documents the calibration of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) safety performance function (SPF) for rural two-lane two-way roadway segments in Utah and the development of new SPFs through negative binomial regression. Crash data from 2005 to 2007 on 157 selected study segments in Utah provided a 3-year frequency of observed crashes to calibrate the HSM SPF and develop new models. The calibration factor for the HSM SPF for rural two-lane two-way roads in Utah is 1.16, indicating that the original HSM model under predicts crashes in Utah. The HSM suggests that jurisdiction-specific SPFs may predict crashes with greater reliability than calibrated SPFs. The following variables were significant in each of the four models developed by this research: annual average daily traffic (AADT), segment length, speed limit, and the percentage of AADT composed of multiple-unit trucks. AADT and segment length are used in the HSM SPF; speed limit and the percentage of AADT composed of multiple-unit trucks were found to correlate significantly with observed crash frequencies. The fourth negative binomial model developed in the study would be the best SPF to predict crashes on rural highways in Utah. As encouraged by the HSM and contemporary research, the empirical Bayes method can be applied with each jurisdiction-specific SPF because the analysis provided an overdispersion parameter for each model.