Calibration of Factors of Safety for Slope Stability of Dikes

Abstract

Dikes in the Netherlands are by law required to comply with predefined safety standards. The goal of this paper is to derive the safety format and the required factor of safety for the inner slope (landside slope) instability failure mode. The first step is to derive the required target reliability for a cross-section. The second step is to derive a safety format in which all uncertain variables in the slope stability computation are identified and accounted for by sufficiently safe parameters estimates. The third step is to derive the relation between target reliability and required factor of safety. This is done by evaluating 48 test cases. For each test case, the factor of safety is computed based on the safety format, as well the corresponding reliability index. This paper shows how to derive a required factor of safety based on a predefined target reliability. However, the spread in this relationship is significant. Hence, a full probabilistic analysis would lead to more accurate slope stability assessments.