Abstract
Strategic transportation network models are often used as support tools in the framework of decisions to be taken at the policy level, such as the Trans-European Network projects. These models are mostly setup using aggregated or limited data. If their calibration is regularly mentioned in the literature, their validation is barely discussed. In this paper, several modal choice model specifications that make only use of explanatory variables available at the network level are described and applied to a large scale case. A validation exercise is performed at three levels of aggregation. The paper is designed from a strategic transport planning perspective, and does not present new modal choice formulations or assignment procedures. Its main added value is the focus on calibration and validation considerations. Despite the limited explanatory information used, the global performance of the best models can be considered as satisfactory. However, the quality of the models varies from mode to mode, the use of railway transport being the most difficult to predict without more specific input.
Highlights
Strategic multimodal freight transportation network models are often used in the framework of transport policy decisions, in order to estimate the impacts of a new large infrastructure on traffic or modal split for instance
The present paper examines, in a systematic way, several modal choice model specifications applied to a model that covers a very large area (Europe), and for which only very limited or aggregated data is available for calibration and validation
Strategic multimodal freight transportation network models are regularly used in the framework of important transport policy decisions to be taken, but are often setup using coarse origin-destination matrixes, defined at a regional level
Summary
Strategic multimodal freight transportation network models are often used in the framework of transport policy decisions, in order to estimate the impacts of a new large infrastructure on traffic or modal split for instance. The present paper examines, in a systematic way, several modal choice model specifications applied to a model that covers a very large area (Europe), and for which only very limited or aggregated data is available for calibration and validation This empirical analysis uses regional OD matrixes and the tested modal choice model utility functions only use explanatory variables (costs, lengths, durations) that are available from a network model. Jourquin and each group of commodities are estimated and compared to the observed ones; A first disaggregated level, from the node point of view, for which the estimated modal split is measured and compared to the actual one for each origin-destination pair; A second disaggregated level, from a link perspective, for which the assigned flow on the network is compared to the “observed” one Beyond this introduction, the section gives a brief presentation of some modalchoice model specifications.
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