Calibrating an agent-based model of longitudinal human activity patterns using the Consolidated Human Activity Database.

Abstract

Patterns of human behavior over extended periods of time are important for characterizing human exposure to hazardous chemicals. Because longitudinal behavior patterns for an individual are difficult to obtain, exposure-assessors have characterized such patterns by linking daily records from multiple individuals. In an earlier publication, we developed an alternative strategy that was based on agent-based simulation modeling. Specifically, we created a software program, Agent-Based Model of Human Activity Patterns (ABMHAP), that generates year-long longitudinal behavior patterns. In this paper, we both calibrate and evaluate ABMHAP using human behavior data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD). We use the longitudinal data (data on individuals'activities over multiple days) in CHAD to parameterize ABMHAP, and we use single-day behavior data from CHAD to evaluate ABMHAP predictions. We evaluate ABMHAP's ability to simulate sleeping, eating, commuting, and working (or attending school) for four populations: working adults, nonworking adults, school-age children, and preschool children. The results demonstrate that ABMHAP, when parameterized with empirical data, can capture both interindividual and intraindividual variation in behaviors in different types of individuals. We propose that simulating annual activity patterns via ABMHAP may allow exposure-assessors to characterize exposure-related behavior in ways not possible with traditional survey methods.