Calibrating a Process-Based Model to Enhance Robustness in Carbon Sequestration Simulations: The Case of Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière

Abstract

To assess the degree to which it has met its commitments under the Paris Agreement, Morocco is called upon to carry out carbon assessments and transparent evaluations. Within the forestry sector, little is known about the role of Morocco’s forests in contributing to carbon uptake. With this aim, we applied for the first time in the literature the 3-PG model to Cedrus atlantica ((Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière, 1855), which represents about 131,800 ha of Morocco’s forest area (i.e., Azrou forest). Through the Differential Evolution-Markov Chains (DE-MC) we tested and assessed the sensitivity and calibrated the 3-PG model. This process-based model provided significant results regarding the carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following: i. Parameters related to stand properties, canopy structure, and processes, as well as biomass partitioning, are the most important or sensitive for the performance of the model; ii. The DE-MC method optimized the values of the 3-PG parameters which was confirmed by the means of the Gelman–Rubin convergence test; iii. According to the predictions of the calibrated 3-PG, the Net Primary Production in the pure Azrou forest varies between 0.35 and 8.82 tC.ha−1.yr−1, it is equal in average to 5.48 tC.ha−1.yr−1, which given the total area corresponds to 7918 tC.ha−1.