Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data

Alex Isakson,Simone Krummaker,María Dolores Martínez-Miranda,Ben Rickayzen

doi:10.3390/math9182260

Alex Isakson, Simone Krummaker + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/math9182260

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Abstract

In this paper, we apply and further illustrate a recently developed extended continuous chain ladder model to forecast mesothelioma deaths. Making such a forecast has always been a challenge for insurance companies as exposure is difficult or impossible to measure, and the latency of the disease usually lasts several decades. While we compare three approaches to this problem, we show that the extended continuous chain ladder model is a promising benchmark candidate for asbestosis mortality forecasting due to its flexible and simple forecasting strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the model can be used to provide an update for the forecast of the number of deaths due to mesothelioma in Great Britain using in recent Health and Safety Executive (HSE) data.

Highlights

In Great Britain, mesothelioma mortality has been steadily increasing in recent years, with 2101 deaths recorded in 2016 and a trend for the average age of deaths to slowly increase over time
Using the methodology described above, we have analysed a dataset consisting of annual aggregated counts of deaths caused by exposure to asbestos in Great Britain for males aged between 25 and 89
We can update the results from the previous analysis of [19] using the additional data and applying model (2), which allows us to take into account the calendar year effect on the mesothelioma deaths

Summary

Introduction

Since the 1960s, mesothelioma or asbestos-related cancer has gained worldwide interest as a result of its increasing incidence, related medico-legal issues and poor prognosis. Mesothelioma is mainly caused by occupational exposure to asbestos fibres in sectors such as mining, road, railway and general construction as well as shipyards, etc., which have a mainly male workforce [1]. The latency period of mesothelioma is between 20 and 70 years with an average of around 40 years. In Great Britain, mesothelioma mortality has been steadily increasing in recent years, with 2101 deaths recorded in 2016 and a trend for the average age of deaths to slowly increase over time. Notifications of mesothelioma claims have exhibited a stable but increasing trend so far [3]

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