Calculative futures between climate and finance: A tragedy of multiple horizons

Abstract

This article analyzes the politics of financial climate risks. It focuses on the phenomena of ‘stranded assets’ and the ‘carbon bubble’: the problem that a consistent implementation of international climate goals could contribute to a massive devaluation of the assets of fossil capitalism. Finance experts frame this issue as a ‘tragedy of the horizon’ (Carney) because, they argue, present investment decisions do not properly account for their future effects. The article seeks to unsettle and expand this framing by arguing that financial climate risks do not only indicate a tragedy of a singular horizon – how to make the future count in the present – but a tragedy of multiple, intersecting horizons: how to make a particular horizon (climate) count in another (finance). The article shows how the very intelligibility of the problem of stranded assets relies on aligning different horizons ranging from climate goals to physical infrastructures, to financial investments. It illuminates the frictions and limits of such an endeavor. The dissonances between the different horizons go along with a ‘fundamental miscount’ (Rancière) that thwarts attempts to smoothly translate the signals of climate politics into financial markets. This suggests that even if finance becomes able to effectively manage financial climate risk and break the tragedy of the financial horizon, it might not break the tragedy of multiple horizons because it cannot prevent the climate catastrophe.