Calculations of emergency response capabilities as parameters of the queueing system

Abstract

The article defines as a scientific problem that requires research the development of a sufficiently simple (for use “in field conditions”) methodology for calculating the capabilities of forces and means of response to man-made, natural and military emergency situations. It is noted that many researchers used the mathematical apparatus of the queueing theory, as well as process modelling with the help of appropriate software, for the theoretical analysis of similar tasks. It is shown that to solve the problem, it is possible to use a mathematical model of the M/M/1 type queueing system (QS), which takes into account the probabilistic nature of the processes of occurrence of emergency situations and response to them, while it was supplemented with an analytical method of calculating the parameters of the QS, which ensure the necessary capability of the forces and means of emergency response. The results of the study are suitable for practical use by emergency services to quickly determine the required number of rescue or repair crews, sanitary teams, vehicles, etc., their equipment and capabilities in responding to emergency situations and overcoming their consequences.