Abstract
The RITY-2 phenology model was developed for the spatiotemporal simulation of the seasonal development of European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. RITY-2 is based on the PHENIPS model and was developed through improving PHENIPS with innovative approaches and calibrating and validating it for Slovenia. RITY-2 predictions are based on air temperatures from Integrated Nowcasting through a Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which is used to calculate the effective bark temperature for beetle development. In this paper we describe the calculation procedure for RITY-2.•INCA enables high resolution spatial and temporal simulations and predictions.•An innovative procedure was introduced that finds the most appropriate spring date threshold from which the calculation of the phenological model is initiated.•Simplified and customized linear models for calculation of the air temperature in the forest and bark temperatures were developed.
Highlights
The models differ with respect to the daily maximum air temperature threshold (ATmax) for the onset of different phenological events (swarming, infestation, filial broods, sister broods)
One model that meets all of these criteria is the PHENIPS model developed by Baier et al [2]
The model was validated for a Central European population of I. typographus and has been used as an online tool for predicting bark beetle development in Austria [3] and Germany [4]
Summary
The models differ with respect to the daily maximum air temperature threshold (ATmax) for the onset of different phenological events (swarming, infestation, filial broods, sister broods). RITY-2 and PHENIPS are comprehensive and much more complex models in comparison to earlier models where only the linear relation between developmental rate and ambient temperature above the lower developmental threshold was used to estimate the cumulative sum of effective temperatures required to complete I. typographus development [14,15,16,17].
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