Calculation of Risk Probability of Levee Landslide Based on Three-dimensional Lequilibrium Theory

Abstract

Sliding instability is a common form of failure of embankments, and traditional dike safety evaluation often uses the safety factor value to judge whether it is safe or not. However, due to the uncertainty of the rock and soil characteristics of the embankment, the evaluation results of the safety factor method sometimes fail to reflect the reality, and it is reasonable to use the risk analysis of sliding instability considering these uncertainties. In this paper, the uncertainty of rock and soil strength parameters and the randomness of seepage field are considered, and the risk probability of sliding instability of the embankment is solved by relying on the reliability analysis method. In the reliability analysis, a three-dimensional bin method combining slope stability analysis and gradient optimization method of reliability analysis are proposed, which consider the safety performance, so that the stability evaluation is not too conservative, and the corresponding sliding risk probability can be obtained while obtaining reliable indicators. Finally, the calculation program is prepared for the proposed method, and the proposed method is verified to be reasonable and correct through the example.