Calculation Method’s Research of Interruption Probability of Online Economic Transaction Based on Bayes Information Fusion

Abstract

The problem of economic transaction interruption under the crisis of online economic transaction interruption is analyzed. It is pointed out that there is an unreliable supplier in the online economic transaction manufacturer. When the supplier fails, there is a problem in the selection of two standby reliable suppliers, and the customer service factor is taken into account. By using a Bayes information fusion method and lingo software, we establish a mathematical model to calculate the procurement cost, supplier transaction cost and customer shortage cost and solve the optimal selection scheme. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the relevant scenario parameters to obtain the numerical test and sensitivity analysis results. The expected total income of online economic transactions is the largest in the CPD model by comparing the four models of online economic transactions. Compared with three non-centralized online economic transaction models, the expected total income of online economic transactions is the largest in the NGPD model.