Abstract
AbstractThe changing nature of the Earth's climate and rapid urbanization lead to the change of rainfall characteristics in urban areas, the stability of rainfall series is destroyed and it is a difficult challenge to consider this change in urban drainage simulation. A generalized additive model (GAMLSS) with time as covariant was established to calculate and predict the design values of extreme rainstorm return period, and the nonstationary short-duration rainstorm intensity formula of three periods was fitted and compared with the stationary formula. The urban water simulation model and the MIKE 21 two-dimensional surface flow model are coupled to simulate the urban flood under different formulas and different return periods. The results show that the nonstationary results are worse in the same period. In the 5-year return period rainfallârunoff simulation performance, the nonstationary inundation area is 18.5% more than the stationary, and inundation water is 23.5% more than the stationary. The nonstationary simulation results show higher inundation depth and slower flood recession process. These gaps will widen in the future, but they will become less significant as the return period increases. It can provide a reference for the study of flood control work and the design of existing drainage infrastructure in the region.
Highlights
In recent years, the impact on global urban waterlogging has been intensified, and the frequency and degree of urban flood is increasing (Douglas et al 2008; Kundzewicz et al 2014)
The design of urban drainage system depends on the intensity and frequency of historical extreme heavy rainfall, which is usually summarized as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves or further generalized into the form of rainstorm intensity formula
According to the results of GAMLSS model with time as covariate, the rainstorm intensity formula based on stationarity assumption does not consider the nonstationarity caused by environmental changes, which is quite different from the rainstorm intensity formula based on nonstationarity calculation
Summary
The impact on global urban waterlogging has been intensified, and the frequency and degree of urban flood is increasing (Douglas et al 2008; Kundzewicz et al 2014). The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations (IPCC AR5) pointed out that the intensity and frequency of rainstorm in most land areas of the world may increase due to the impact of global climate change and land-use change.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
