Abstract
Some previous studies calculated backward linkage and forward linkage effects of exogenous change in output capacity using mixed endogenous–exogenous models within an input–output (IO) or social accounting matrix (SAM) framework. For calculating forward linkage effects, these studies used the supply-drive(Ghosh in Economica 25(1):58–64, 1958) approach. However, the Ghosh approach has been criticized based on its problematic theoretical interpretation. This study uses an Alaska SAM model to estimate the regional economic impacts of restricting catch of Pacific cod and Atka mackerel in the Aleutian Islands in order to protect Steller sea lions. This study overcomes the problem of calculating forward linkage effects in the previous studies by running the SAM model with (1) changes in output converted to final demand shocks and (2) regional purchase coefficients for all the directly impacted industries (fish harvesting and processing industries) set equal to zero. The impacts of the shift in harvest opportunities in response to the Steller sea lion protection measures are displayed in terms of changes in output, employment, value added, household income, and state and local government revenue.
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