Abstract
The issue of very short-term forecasting of power generated in renewable energy sources, including small wind turbine-generator sets, is getting more and more important. Because it is crucial/necessary to ensure reliable electricity supplies to consumers, it is a subject of a great significance in small energy micro-systems, which are commonly called microgrids. Small wind turbine-generator sets will be shortly characterized in this paper. Further on, typical characteristics of power generated by these units, dependent on the wind velocity, will be presented. Then results of sample calculations of electric power and energy generated by several wind turbine-generator sets of small installed capacity, in relation to the wind velocity and time intervals assumed for calculations, will be presented. On the basis of these calculations, estimation errors resulting from the magnitude of time intervals, assumed in the process of wind velocity averaging, will be determined. Some qualitative analysis of obtained estimates of electric powers and energies, in context of very short-term forecasts of these quantities, will be carried out. At the end of the paper observations and conclusions concerning analyzed subject, i.e. calculating the electric power and energy generated in small wind turbine- generator sets in a very short-term horizon, will be provided.
Highlights
The issue of very short-term forecasting of power generated in renewable energy sources, including small wind turbine-generator sets, is getting more and more important
For the reason of necessity of ensuring reliable electricity supplies to consumers, it is a subject of a great significance in small energy micro-systems, which are commonly called microgrids
Sometimes the electric power being generated as a result of wind turbines operation under low wind velocity conditions is not taken into account
Summary
The issue of very short-term forecasting of power generated in renewable energy sources, including small wind turbine-generator sets, is getting more and more important. Especially for small wind turbines, can, in the opinion of the paper authors, lead to not very precise estimations of electric power and electrical energy that is going to be generated It can be of a great importance for different kinds of analyses being performed for low voltage microgrids. The authors show that due to the partially exponential nature of the particular turbines generation curves, the applying of long averaging time periods leads to the significant underestimation of the true values of the levels of electric powers being generated. These findings are the clue and constitute the key aspect of the paper. The allocation of wind power generators in the grid structure is another issue that has an impact on the planning and future operation of such systems [8]
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