Abstract
Cellular Automata models are used for simulating spatial distributions and Markov Chain models are used for simulating temporal changes. The main aim of this study is to investigate the effect of urban growth on Faisalabad. This research is aimed at predicting seasonal Land-Surface-Temperature (LST) as well as Land-Use and Land-cover (LULC) with a Cellular-Automata-Markov-Chain (CA-Markov-Chain). Landsat 5, 7 and 8 data were used for mapping seasonal LULC and LST distributions during the months of May and November for the years 1990, 1998, 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018. A CA-Markov-Chain was developed for simulating long-term landscape changes at 10-year time steps from 2018 to 2048. Furthermore, surface temperature during summers and winters were predicted well by Urban Index (UI), a non-vegetation index, demonstrating the highest correlation of R2 = 0.8962 and R2 = 0.9212 with respect to retrieved summer and winter surface temperature. Through the CA-Markov Chain analysis, we can expect that high density and low-density residential areas will grow from 22.23 to 24.52 km2 and from 108.53 to 122.61 km2 in 2018 and 2048, as inferred from the changes occurred from 1990 to 2018. Considering UI as the predictor of seasonal LST, we predicted that the summer and winter temperature 24–28 °C and 14–16 °C and regions would decrease in coverage from 10.75 to 3.14% and from 8.81 to 3.47% between 2018 and 2048, while the summer and winter temperature 35–42 °C and winter 26–32 °C regions will increase in the proportion covered from 12.69 to 24.17% and 6.75–15.15% of city.
Highlights
Land use monitoring projects have been integral to international climate and environmental science after the start of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) project
Urban expansion could be investigated from landcover maps and in summer season, central business districts (CBD)/I. area, high density residential (HDR) and LDR was increased from 1.53 km2 (0.76%) to 6.35 km2(3.14%), 8.77 km2 (4.35%) to 22.23 km2 (11.28%) and 57.53 km2 (28.51%) to 108.34 km2 (53.70%) (Table 5)
Crops and water area was decreased from 18.70 km2 (9.27%) to 16.40 km2 (8.13%), 114.31 km2 (56.65%) to 47.92 km2 (23.75%) and 0.93 km2 (0.46%) to 0.52 km2 (0.26%) respectively (Table 5).The Table 5 winter part indicate that the CBD/I. area, HDR and LDR area was increased from 1.53 km2 (0.76%) to 6.35 km2 (3.14%), 8.77 km2 (4.35%) to 22.23 km2 (11.28%) and 57.53 km2 (28.51%) to 108.34 km2 (53.70%) and G
Summary
Land use monitoring projects have been integral to international climate and environmental science after the start of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) project. Urbanization, marked by replacing natural environments with warm absorbing surfaces and houses, results in high urban temperatures relative to rural and sub urban areas [1]. High temperatures occur in central business districts (CBD) and high density residential (HDR) areas [2]. These kinds of temperature changes may have negative environmental and socio-economic effects on built-up areas, including enlarged consumption of heating and air conditioning raising energy prices and pollution-related health threats [3,4]. The association between future temperature and LULC changes predictions needs to be understood for renewable urbanization and making plans
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