C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio as a biomarker in patients with sepsis: a novel LASSO-COX based prognostic nomogram

Abstract

To develop a C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR)-based nomogram for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in sepsis patients. Sepsis patients were selected from the MIMIC-IV database. Independent predictors were determined by multiple Cox analysis and then integrated to predict survival. The performance of the model was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, and calibration curve. The risk stratifications analysis and subgroup analysis of the model in overall survival (OS) were assessed by Kaplan–Meier (K–M) curves. A total of 6414 sepsis patients were included. C-index of the CAR-based model was 0.917 [standard error (SE): 0.112] for the training set and 0.935 (SE: 0.010) for the validation set. The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.881 in the training set and 0.801 in the validation set. And the calibration curve showed that the nomogram performs well in both the training and validation sets. K–M curves indicated that patients with high CAR had significantly higher in-hospital mortality than those with low CAR. The CAR-based model has considerably high accuracy for predicting the OS of sepsis patients.