Abstract
In the western part of the South Baikal Basin, spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters is characterized by quasi-periodic seismic reactivations. The strongest earthquakes occurred in 1999 (South Baikal, Мw = 6.0), 2008 (Kultuk, Мw = 6.3) and 2020 (Kudara, Мw = 5.4). Since 2013, we have been monitoring the 234U/238U activity ratio (AR4/8) in groundwater as an indicator of crack open/closing that promotes/prevents water circulation in active faults of the basin. From monitoring results, we define the concept of a complete seismogeodynamic cycle as a change from crustal compression to extension occurred during 12 years with a successive increase in seismic hazard levels.
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