Bézier interpolation improves the inference of dynamical models from data.

Abstract

Many dynamical systems, from quantum many-body systems to evolving populations to financial markets, are described by stochastic processes. Parameters characterizing such processes can often be inferred using information integrated over stochastic paths. However, estimating time-integrated quantities from real data with limited time resolution is challenging. Here, we propose a framework for accurately estimating time-integrated quantities using Bézier interpolation. We applied our approach to two dynamical inference problems: Determining fitness parameters for evolving populations and inferring forces driving Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We found that Bézier interpolation reduces the estimation bias for both dynamical inference problems. This improvement was especially noticeable for data sets with limited time resolution. Our method could be broadly applied to improve accuracy for other dynamical inference problems using finitely sampled data.