Abstract
Most studies of candidate entry focus on the general election challenger, ignoring all other candidates. This limits the study of entry in two ways. First, results are not generalizable. Variables which have been found to correlate with the presence of an experienced challenger in the general election might not correlate with amateur entry or the entry of incumbent-party challengers. Second, existing tests of the “Rational Model of Candidate Entry” are weak tests. Studies regularly find a correlation between the presence of experienced challengers in the general election and the outparty's prospects of winning, but this is not a sufficient condition of the model. Amateurs are also more likely to run when the probability of winning is high, and if this correlation is as strong as that between experienced challenger entry and the prospects of winning, this would violate a prediction of the model. I address both issues by separately estimating the entry of experienced challengers and amateurs. Two primary results follow. First, evidence indicates strong support for the rational model. Second, correlates of entry are different for different types of challengers.
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