Business Cycles with Revolutions

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical macroeconomic framework to analyze the relationship between major political disruptions and business cycles of a country. We combine a new dataset of political revolutions (mass domestic political campaigns to remove dictators and juntas) across the world since 1960, with coup data and traditional macro data (of output, investment, trade, inflation and exchange rate). We then build a panel vector-autoregression model with two novel ingredients: (1) political disruptions and (2) an estimated probability of such disruptions. We find that both terms have statistically and economically significant impacts on business cycles. Interestingly, the impacts of the second term dominate those of the first, both statistically and economically. This suggests that our measure of political risk captures an important source of time-varying uncertainty and volatility in many countries.