Abstract
AbstractThis paper examines business cycle synchronization in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region. We investigate the role of the global factor and the CIS factor in evolution of business cycles in the CIS countries by applying a dynamic factor model. In addition, we also examine whether the role of these two factors has changed over time. Results indicate that overall business cycle synchronization of these countries within the region and globally is low. Russia is the most globally integrated CIS country and Belarus displays the highest degree of co‐movement with the CIS factor. Our results show that 2014 Russo–Ukrainian conflict and subsequent Russian sanctions had a profound effect on the region leading to an increase in synchronization within the CIS and decline in the role of the global factor.
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