Abstract
With the rapid development of the economy, time for urban residents has become more and more valuable. As a key indicator of service performance, travel time reliability has become increasingly important in today's world as businesses as well as households require on-time transportation for their activities, and especially for a public transport system. In order to reflect on the traveler's satisfaction degree on bus operating service and route travel time, this paper redefines the bus route perceived travel time and travel time reliability according to a traveler's psychological characteristics. It presents a travel time reliability model. Monte Carlo arithmetic is used to estimate the boundary of travel time reliability for heterogeneous and risk averse travelers who depart at different times. The proposed travel time reliability not only reveals the service quality of the bus route for bus operation managers, but also provides a decision-making basis for travelers to arrange their travel plans. The paper concludes with a case study of a typical bus route in Nanjing.
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