Bus Rescheduling for Long-Term Benefits: An Integrated Model Focusing on Service Capability and Regularity

Abstract

Unplanned disruptions, such as vehicle breakdowns, in a public transportation system can lead to severe delays and even service interruptions, preventing the successful implementation of subsequent plans and the overall stability of transit services. A common solution to address such issues is implementing a bus bridging service using an experience-based response strategy, involving the deployment of spare buses to continue affected services. However, with this approach, it becomes impractical and challenging to generate a feasible and rational rescheduling scheme for the remaining transit services when spare buses are insufficient or widespread disruptions occur. In response to this challenge, we propose an innovative model that integrates service capability and regularity, aiming to minimize rescheduling costs through timetable adjustments and scheduling reassignments. We apply dynamic programming to comprehensively consider the hysteresis effects of disruptions and achieve a long-term optimal rescheduling scheme. To efficiently solve the proposed model, the large neighborhood search algorithm is improved by incorporating operational rules. Finally, several experiments are conducted under an actual transit operation scenario in Shenzhen. The results demonstrate that our method significantly reduces trip cancellations and, simultaneously, diminishes the increase in the departure interval resulting from the adjusted schedule by 23.27%.