Bus bunching as a synchronisation phenomenon

Abstract

Bus bunching is a perennial phenomenon that not only diminishes the efficiency of a bus system, but also prevents transit authorities from keeping buses on schedule. We present a physical theory of buses serving a loop of bus stops as a ring of coupled self-oscillators, analogous to the Kuramoto model. Sustained bunching is a repercussion of the process of phase synchronisation whereby the phases of the oscillators are locked to each other. This emerges when demand exceeds a critical threshold. Buses also bunch at low demand, albeit temporarily, due to frequency detuning arising from different human drivers’ distinct natural speeds. We calculate the critical transition when complete phase locking (full synchronisation) occurs for the bus system, and posit the critical transition to completely no phase locking (zero synchronisation). The intermediate regime is the phase where clusters of partially phase locked buses exist. Intriguingly, these theoretical results are in close correspondence to real buses in a university’s shuttle bus system.