Burning Susceptibility Modeling to Reduce Wildfire Impacts: A GIS and Multivariate Statistics Approach

Rodrigo Vieira Leite,Maria Lucia Calijuri,Sabrina do Carmo Alves,Jackeline de Siqueira Castro,Vitor Juste dos Santos,Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres,Vicente Paulo Santana Neto

doi:10.1590/2179-8087-floram-2021-0078

Abstract

Forest burning susceptibility mapping is a tool to mitigate wildfires, with several methods to develop them. This study aimed to compare the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and Random Forest (RF) methods for mapping. Several variables were used to generate the maps. For MLR and RF methods, fire frequency between 1990 and 2010 was used as the response variable in the models. To validate the methods (AHP, MLR and RF), fire data between 2011 and 2018 were used in four stages. RF was the best method employed. Correct and incorrect values for this method were 74% and 26% and AUC 0.66. The sensitivity and specificity for the highest risk class were 31% and 96%. The low sensitivity values can be attributed to the randomness attributed to anthropic fire. The high specificity values point to a good separation of the higher risk class compared to the others.

Highlights

AND OBJECTIVESIn Mediterranean Europe, the frequency and size of forest fires have increased dramatically in recent decades (San-MiguelAyanz et al, 2013; Francos et al, 2018)
Portugal is the worst hit by forest fires (Tonini et al, 2017), including some notable events, such as those in the central region, in 2017, which caused 113 deaths, and the one in Castelo Branco, in 2019, which resulted in dozens of injuries
The report of the Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas (ICNF) explains that, for the past 10 years, nearly 132,049 hectares of forests and shrublands in Portugal were burned per year, which constitutes about 2.87% of the total area of these classes (DGTERRITÓRIO, 2019a; ICNF, 2019a)

Summary

Introduction

AND OBJECTIVESIn Mediterranean Europe, the frequency and size of forest fires have increased dramatically in recent decades (San-MiguelAyanz et al, 2013; Francos et al, 2018). Portugal is the worst hit by forest fires (Tonini et al, 2017), including some notable events, such as those in the central region, in 2017, which caused 113 deaths, and the one in Castelo Branco, in 2019, which resulted in dozens of injuries. Wildfires are responsible for numerous environmental impacts, being able to shape the landscape and change the habitat, flora and fauna structures, reducing the forest and other natural environments area (Aximoff & Rodrigues, 2011; Camargo et al, 2018). Most fires are caused by human factors, such as incendiary fire, debris burning, smoking, campfire, railroad, children, and equipment use (Grala et al, 2017).

Objectives

Methods

Results