Burden of Severe Norovirus Disease in Taiwan, 2003-2013.

Abstract

Despite the increasingly recognized role of norovirus in global acute gastroenteritis (AGE), specific estimates of the associated disease burden remain sparse, primarily due to limited availability of sensitive norovirus diagnostics in the clinical setting. We sought to estimate the incidence of norovirus-associated hospitalizations by age group in Taiwan using a previously developed indirect regression method. AGE-related hospitalizations in Taiwan were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes abstracted from a national database; population data were provided from the Department of Household Registration Affairs. Population and hospitalizations were aggregated by month and year (July 2003-June 2013) and grouped by age: <5 years, 5-19 years, 20-64 years, and ≥65 years. Monthly counts of cause-unspecified AGE hospitalizations were modeled as a function of counts of known causes, and the residuals were then analyzed to estimate norovirus-associated hospitalizations. Over the study period, an annual mean of 101400 gastroenteritis-associated hospitalizations occurred in Taiwan (44 per 10000 person-years), most of which (83%) had no specified cause. The overall estimated rate of norovirus-associated hospitalizations was 6.7 per 10000 person-years, with the highest rates in children aged <5 years (63.7/10000 person-years). Predicted norovirus peaked in 2006-2007 and 2012-2013. Our study is one of the first to generate a population-based estimate of severe norovirus disease incidence in Asia, and highlights the large burden of norovirus in Taiwan, particularly in children. Predicted peak norovirus seasons coincided with the emergence of new strains and resulting pandemics, supporting the validity of the estimates.