Burden of disease due to PM2.5 and NO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants in Germany

Abstract

Background Coal combustion emits pollutants that affect human health. We aimed to quantify the environmental burden of disease (EBD) due to PM2.5 and NO2 emissions from coal-fired power-plants (CFPPs) in Germany. Methods Emissions from CFPPs and other sources were extracted from official German and European inventories. The contribution of CFPPs to AP in Germany was calculated with the chemical transport model REM-CALGRID on a grid of 2x2 km2 for 2015. Mean annual PM2.5 and NO2 exposure was assessed by intersecting the contribution of CFPPs to AP with the population distribution in Germany for 2015. Age- and sex-stratified mortality data and life-expectancy were extracted from the Federal Health Monitoring. The attributable EBD, expressed as Years of Life Lost (YLL), was calculated based on relative risk estimates for natural cause mortality from single- and multi-pollutant models for PM2.5 and NO2 from the ELAPSE (Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe) study. For disease-specific endpoints, we calculated YLL using relative risk estimates for PM2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study and for NO2 from the ELAPSE study. Results The mean (min; max) calculated contributions of CFPPs to ambient PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations in Germany in 2015 were 0.25 µg/m3 (0.05 µg/m3; 3.11 µg/m3) and 0.48 µg/m3 (0.03 µg/m3; 14.95 µg/m3), respectively. The combined attributable EBD for natural cause mortality was 71,912 YLL (95% CI 52,818; 91,510). The sum of YLL for disease specific endpoints was 12,483 YLL for PM2.5 (coronary heart disease 49.7% of YLL, lung cancer 29.5%, COPD 8.9%, stroke 8.6% and diabetes mellitus type 2 3.3%) and 18,380 YLL for NO2 (cardiovascular mortality 96.8%, COPD mortality 3.2%). Conclusion In 2015, disease burden due to PM2.5 and NO2 emissions from CFPPs in Germany was substantial and dominated by coronary heart disease and cardiovascular mortality. Keywords Coal-fired power-plants; health