Bundling cancer subtypes in value-based care: A pilot analysis of lymphoma episodes in the Oncology Care Model.

Abstract

e18850 Background: Value based models (VBMs) in which cancers are bundled are a growing alternative to fee for service, as in the Oncology Care Model (OCM). However, bundles in OCM may not capture the clinical granularity needed to predict resource utilization for cancer subtypes. One such bundle is lymphoma, which groups highly heterogeneous diseases with distinct treatments and differing intensity of care. Here, we compare OCM predicted episode costs (targets) to actual episode costs by lymphoma subtype. Methods: Our cohort study used OCM data from a large academic medical center (AMC) and large community oncology practice (COP). Six-month episodes of lymphoma beginning between July 2016 and June 2019 were categorized based on ICD-10 diagnoses on antineoplastic infusions and E&M visits, as well as disease and data modeling. Episodes were subdivided into follicular (FL), diffuse large B (DLBCL), small B (SBCL), mantle (MCL), Hodgkin (HL), Waldenstrom macroglobulinemia (WM), mature T/NK (T/NK), and Other. The distributional consistency of episode costs and targets for each subtype relative to the rest of the episodes was evaluated by Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. We also compared the proportion of subtypes contributing to episodes in the AMC vs. COP. Results: A total of 1801 lymphoma episodes were identified (44% in AMC, 56% in COP). The most common subtypes (DLBCL and FL) contributed a larger proportion of episodes in the COP, while less frequent subtypes (T/NK, WM) were more prevalent at the AMC. Further, episode costs are significantly different across individual subtypes. Target variance was significantly lower than cost variance across subtypes. For example, the average target for WM was $50.4K, average costs were $40.2K, with 26% of episodes over target. In contrast, the average target for T/NK was $55.9K, average costs were $72.7K, with 64% of episodes over target. Conclusions: VBMs such as OCM currently aggregate cancer types and lack clinical granularity. Our evaluation of OCM episodes at an AMC and COP found considerable differences in lymphoma populations and in costs by subtype. Failure to account for clinical features (i.e. lymphoma history) could lead to inappropriate shifts of risk from payers to providers in VBMs.[Table: see text]