Built environment and the evolution of the “15-minute city”: A 25-year longitudinal study of 200 Swedish cities

Abstract

This article aims to examine how key features of the built environment have influenced the development of the 15-minute city in Swedish cities. Using longitudinal register data geocoded at a 100-meter level and encompassing the entire population and workplaces, we track the 200 largest Swedish cities over a 25-year period (1992–2017). The 15-minute city is operationalized as the proportion of the population in each city that can access a range of non-work urban social functions within a short distance from home. The study uses various multivariate modeling techniques, including fixed effect models, to measure the effects of changes in the built environment. We thus address significant research gaps by investigating the dynamic nature of the 15-minute city concept, conducting comparisons within and across multiple cities, and considering the influence of the built environment, particularly in smaller cities. Results show that population size has less significance than expected, and that smaller cities can achieve certain criteria of the 15-minute city. However, increasing population density and promoting mixed land use clearly contribute to fostering the 15-minute city. Moreover, cities that to a larger extent were developed before mass motorization tend to exhibit a greater degree of 15-minute city characteristics. The results highlight the importance of making long-term, thoughtful, strategic decisions in urban planning efforts aimed at transforming cities into 15-minute cities.