Building regression models of city buses’ fuel consumption

Abstract

This study is justified by the need to develop route fuel consumption norms for city buses in operation based on the results of the analysis of statistical data on the operation of rolling stock, under weather conditions and the age structure of the bus fleet. At the same time, current modifications of buses and factors affecting their fuel consumption are selected. The criteria for the collection and processing of statistical data in a large city are given, taking into account the capabilities of their modern information systems. The preliminary analysis of the obtained statistical data, the subsequent nonlinear transformation of factors and the component analysis of age indicators is carried out in order to improve the quality of mathematical models of fuel consumption. Based on the obtained regression models, fuel consumption norms are determined for the routes of a large bus transport company for the forecast period. Keywords: rolling stock, city bus, age structure, weather conditions, fuel consumption, regression models