Building Power Demand Estimation on Unusual Days Considering Facility Operation Status and Number of Occupants

Abstract

To optimally conduct capital investment and energy management for buildings with storage batteries and photovoltaic (PV) generation, it is essential to accurately predict the electricity demand not only on weekdays but also on holidays and event days. However, predicting the building power demand on holidays and event days is difficult because facility operations and the number of occupants in a building are different from weekdays. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate unusual power demand by considering the power demand structure of existing buildings. The proposed method is an application of disaggregation techniques based on linear regression. First, a power demand structure model is developed by calculating the facility status demand contribution and number of occupants from weekday operational data. Second, the daily power demand is estimated with high accuracy by applying hypothetical operational scenarios, such as holidays, to the model. Experimental data from real offices confirm that the proposed method could estimate the power demand during weekends and vacation periods when the attendance rate is reduced by half.