Building future scenarios using cognitive mapping

Abstract

A participatory approach for developing future scenarios through cognitive maps as a visual representation of mental models is presented. Applying long-term future visioning techniques in a workshop setting has traditionally been a significant challenge for construction industry practitioners with a predominantly short-term, project-based approach to day-to-day operational responsibilities. Six future scenario cognitive maps are presented to illustrate the process. The maps were digitised from A1-sized papers using Decision Explorer™ software. Several key characteristics of the resulting cognitive maps and lessons learnt for the organisation of industry-based workshops are discussed. The main benefits are derived from the interaction between participants during the mapping process whereby future issues and their interconnectivities are discussed. Limitations of the findings and further work are presented.