Abstract
Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study, describes the principles of the climate resilience framework, and proposes an implementation strategy for climate resilient development to be applied in the Abay Highlands, with potential expansion to agricultural communities across the region and beyond.
Highlights
The 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007, projects that the global temperature of the planet’s atmosphere will likely have increased 1.1 °C to6.4 °C by the end of this century, relative to 1980–1999 baseline data
Ethiopia’s low level of economic development combined with its heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is sensitive to climate change, and its high population growth rate make the country exposed to climate change, and, due to low adaptive capacity, highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of these changes [2,3]
The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 explains a framework for building resilience to climate change; Section 3 presents a review of findings from Choke Mountain that have informed the climate resilience framework; Section 4 summarizes opportunities and challenges for achieving climate resilient green economies in the Abay Highlands; Section 5 introduces an institutional mechanism for merging science, technology, and development in support of climate resilience, and Section 6 addresses conclusions and recommendations for up scaling the Choke experiences
Summary
The 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007, projects that the global temperature of the planet’s atmosphere will likely have increased 1.1 °C to. Increases in floods have placed additional stress on social institutions and increased the vulnerability of households [7,8] The drought conditions this year have most severely affected pastoralists and their animals, with the largest impacts in regions of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia where over 65% of the population are pastoralists. Experts have differing perspectives on where effort should be focused depending on the field of their specialization and the mandates of their institutions This makes the planning process of building climate resilient economies complex, when adaptation requires proactive investment in addition to reactive response [2,12,13]. The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 explains a framework for building resilience to climate change; Section 3 presents a review of findings from Choke Mountain that have informed the climate resilience framework; Section 4 summarizes opportunities and challenges for achieving climate resilient green economies in the Abay Highlands; Section 5 introduces an institutional mechanism for merging science, technology, and development in support of climate resilience, and Section 6 addresses conclusions and recommendations for up scaling the Choke experiences
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